TailgateFever: The Guru

Here are my final rankings before the conference championship games this weekend. Next week, I’ll introduce my proposal for a logical, extremely lucrative national tournament – called the Guru Championship Series ® (GCS®).

I have a very simple set of rules for my rankings:

Who do I think would win on a neutral field right now? Overall records and relative strength of schedule will be minimized in favor of actual performance on the field.
A quality loss does not automatically lead to a drop in the ratings. Sometimes teams can look better in losses than in wins.
Forget reputations. I don’t care what you did last year or in the 1970s. As a corollary to this rule, in-season corrections may dramatic as teams impress me or look worse than I expected.
Basically, #1 is the only rule.

This weeks notes:

Big shake-up in the rankings due to the losses last week and how teams are playing in recent games. Expect significant differences between the Guru rankings and the BCS near the top.
Oregon is done. They’re not a top 25 team right now (see rule #1) so they are not in these rankings.
I’ve finally given in and ranked Hawaii. I still think they’d finish around .500 in a BCS conference, but they finally beat a team with a pulse.

Guru Rank	BCS Rank	Team	Comment
1	4	Georgia (10-2)	Do you want your favorite team to play them right now? They have looked scary good over the last month. In fact the only team which I also considered for #1 was …
2	8	Southern Cal (9-2)	…who’s finally playing like the team people were expecting to see this season. Right now, both Georgia and USC would be favored against any other team on a neutral field.
3	2	West Virginia (10-1)	Convincingly stomped UConn this past week (don’t forget that UVA squeaked past UConn at home.) Beat lowly Pitt and they’re in the BCS – but not GCS® - title game.
4	1	Missouri (11-1)	Good win vs. Kansas, but in watching that game I got the distinct impression that neither team was truly elite. The Tigers get the chance to prove me wrong in the Big 12 title game.
5	10	Florida (9-3)	Paging FSU LB Geno Hayes … do you still want to talk smack about Tim Tebow? This team has the talent to play and beat anyone in the country.
6	7	LSU (10-2)	On the plus side: their two losses both came in triple overtime. On the minus side: both losses were to currently unranked teams, and their defense is far less impressive than it was in September.
7	6	Virginia Tech (10-2)	Did the Hokie offense actually just win a game? Is this bizarro world? Seriously, we’re one of the hottest teams in the country right now. It’s time to make BC pay for that crappy Thursday evening last month.
8	3	Ohio State (11-1)	They only have one win vs. a top 25 team – at home vs. Wisconsin. The fact that they are back in the title picture shows how wacky this season has been.
9	9	Oklahoma (10-2)	They’ve already beaten Missouri once this year at home, but the Sooners appear to be far more vulnerable on the road.
10	5	Kansas (11-1)	I considered dropping this team much farther, since they were exposed as frauds vs. Missouri. Basically, they have no defense and a pass-wacky offense. Their best win of the year came at Oklahoma State (#38 in BCS). But then I looked at the teams below them and no one looked any better.
11	15	Illinois (9-3)	Best potential bowl game of the year: Illinois vs. Florida in the Capitol One Bowl. Could that be Ron Zook’s revenge?
12	11	Boston College (10-2)	A solid team which finally broke its hex vs. Miami. Hopefully the ACC title game does not come down to an onsides kick.
13	14	Tennessee (9-3)	Phil Fulmer must feel like Lazarus these days. In October he was under intense criticism, even to the point of a potential firing, and now after 5 straight wins and countless overtimes he has a chance to win the SEC.
14	16	Clemson (9-3)	They tried to lose vs. South Carolina, but the Gamecocks were a little better at the same game.
15	13	Arizona State (9-2)	They just got hammered by USC on Thanksgiving day. Watch out for the rivalry game against Arizona this week – the Wildcats play their best ball in November.
16	18	Wisconsin (9-3)	They appear to have found their mojo at the end of the season. Good thing because they looked terrible in September and October.
17	19	BYU (9-2)	I think the Cougars are playing the best ball of any non-BCS team right now. They’ve been on a roll in the last 6 weeks.
18	20	Texas (9-3)	It’s got to suck to lose to a team whose coach resigns in disgrace in the post-game press conference. Is Mack Brown feeling some post-Vince Young heat?
19	22	Virginia (9-3)	They fought hard vs. the Hokies, but they don’t have the talent or depth at the skill positions that we do. That said, it always feels good to beat the Cavs.
20	12	Hawaii (11-0)	They have the coveted top-12 spot in the BCS rankings. Now they have to hold onto it by beating Washington this week.
21	21	South Florida (9-3)	They’re one of a few interchangeable Big East teams which are borderline rank-able. They get the nod here due to their win at Auburn
22	24	Auburn (8-4)	Another Iron Bowl, another win. The Tigers could be the SEC’s representative to the Peach Bowl – maybe to face Clemson?
23	27	Arkansas (8-4)	The Razorbacks are a very inconsistent team. But based on their win at LSU, not many teams would like to play them when they’re playing well.
24	31	Penn State (8-4)	The selections are getting pretty grim down here. The Nittany Lions appear to be the least-bad team of the bunch.
25	23	Cincinnati (9-3)	This could be any of ten teams. At this ranking does it really matter?